Speaker
Description
This study explores the key determinants of air transport demand across 40 European countries over the period 2016–2022, with special attention to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on air passengers carried as the dependent variable and a set of macroeconomic indicators including international tourist arrivals, GDP per capita, trade openness, and unemployment rate as explanatory variables. Using data extracted from the World Bank and other reliable databases, we perform a comprehensive empirical analysis employing pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators. The Hausman test guides the appropriate model specification between fixed and random effects, while diagnostic tests such as multicollinearity (VIF), heteroscedasticity (Breusch–Pagan test), and robustness checks strengthen the reliability of the results. Dynamic panel techniques, particularly the one-step system GMM estimator, allow for capturing inertia and persistence in air travel behavior. The findings suggest that GDP per capita and international tourism arrivals are strong positive predictors of air travel demand, high unemployment negatively affects air transport, and trade openness shows a nuanced but generally positive relationship. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe contraction in passenger numbers, yet recovery trends highlight the central role of economic growth and tourism in driving air transport demand, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to stimulate the sector through targeted reforms in tourism, trade, and labor markets.
